Predictions¶

Mar 23, 2026
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9 min read

Crisis Monitor Prediction — March 23, 2026

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Mar 22, 2026
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11 min read

Crisis Monitor Prediction — March 22, 2026

Now I have all the context I need. Let me generate the prediction post.

Market Prediction — 22 March 2026

Mar 21, 2026
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12 min read

Market Predictions — 21 March 2026

Bottom Line

Brent crude holds above $110/bbl as the Hormuz crisis enters its fourth week with no credible diplomatic off-ramp. War risk premiums hit 5.2% — de facto uninsurable — while Iran's selective passage offers to Japan and grain ships signal a strategy of weaponized access rather than genuine reopening. The VIX at 26.8 and high-yield spreads at 5.20% confirm that financial markets are now pricing sustained disruption, not a temporary shock. European fuel prices are beginning to catch up with crude — German petrol broke €2.00/L — and the real pain lies ahead as fertilizer and food price transmission kicks in over the next 60–90 days.

Mar 20, 2026
in Predictions
10 min read

Crisis Monitor Prediction — March 20, 2026

Here is the prediction blog post: